EVENING POST:  JUNE 14,  2008

Posted at 7:45 p.m. ET

WHY DO THEY HATE US?

It became the cliché question of the political left following 9/11 - a way of blaming America for the attacks, and diverting attention away from the attackers.  But David Frum, once a speechwriter for President Bush, has actually examined the issue of anti-Americanism, a kind of international mental illness, and finds it widely misreported:

Pro-American feeling does not necessarily translate into pro-American action.

People across Western Europe mourned the 9/11 attack. But a Gallup poll conducted the week after 9/11 found that only 29% of the French, 21% of Italians, 18% of the British, 17% of Germans and 12% of Spaniards supported military action against countries that harbored terrorists. Iraq is not the reason that NATO has trouble persuading European governments to send troops to fight in Afghanistan.

Anti-American feeling is often an artifact of propaganda.

Anti-Americanism becomes stronger as the media become less free. Russian anti-Americanism began its measurable rise in the polls in the late 1990s, coinciding with the reassertion of state control over the Russian media and the imposition of a strong nationalist message.

And...

Behind all these particular problems, there is a larger defect, maybe best explained by an analogy.

Suppose we were studying anti-black hatred. Would we begin by trying to figure out what blacks had done to justify hatred -- and then offer suggestions about how they might alter their behavior so as to give less offense? Yet that is how the conversation about anti-Americanism often proceeds.

Critics of the Bush administration cite various grievances against American policy as the cause of anti-Americanism. But this is a naive understanding of how the human mind works.

Finally...

Where anti-Americanism is strong, it predates George Bush and Iraq.

In the first Pew survey, conducted in 1999, Pakistan already ranked as the most anti-American country on Earth.

The Gallup Organization conducted a huge survey of Islamic public opinion between December, 2001, and January, 2002. It found that a majority of those surveyed regarded the United States unfavorably, with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Iran being the most hostile. Significant numbers in all Islamic countries regarded the 9/11 attacks as justifiable. Barely one-fifth of those surveyed accepted that the 9/11 attacks were carried out by Arab men -- two-thirds denied it outright.

Frum is right, but too many of our journalists, drunk on what they were taught in the Ivy League about "alternative narratives," will continue to report what they want to report, regardless of what the facts say.  Facts are inconvenient.  Ideology is comfortable.

June 14, 2008.      Permalink          

AFTERNOON UPDATE:  JUNE 14,  2008

Posted at 4:55 p.m. ET

TRACKERS

The trackers for today are steady.  Rasmussen has Obama up by six over McCain, but Gallup has him up only three.  Average them, that's a 4.5-point lead.  That's no landslide.

I'm beginning to agree with the conventional wisdom, for this week at least, that this election will be about Obama, and that McCain must define him.  I'm very concerned about Obama's tentative plan, reported in this morning's Urgent Agenda (below), to make a world tour this summer, meeting foreign leaders.  You just know what the TV people will do with that.  It will be the world's longest unpaid commercial.

The election is less than five months away.

June 14, 2008.       Permalink            

SATURDAY:  JUNE 14,  2008

Posted at 7:58 a.m. ET     

IRAN REJECTS - SHOCK!

A pair of stories this morning tells us pretty much where we are, which won't make too many people all that comfortable.

Iran, without so much as opening the letter, has rejected the latest incentives offered by major powers in exchange for halting its enrichment of uranium.  What a surprise.  Why, didn't we all think they'd grab at anything just to show good will?  The grim details of a major confrontation in the making:

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Top EU diplomat Javier Solana handed Iran an offer by six major powers of trade and other incentives on Saturday to try to coax it into halting sensitive nuclear work, but Tehran again ruled out any such suspension.

"If the package (from the six powers) includes suspension it is not debatable at all," Iran's government spokesman Gholamhossein Elham told reporters.

"Iran's view is clear: any precondition is unacceptable."

He was speaking shortly after Solana, the European Union's foreign policy chief, presented the incentives package from the United States, China, Russia, France, Britain and Germany to Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki.

Yes, Iran's view is clear, and it's been clear for months and months.  Can the Europeans finally accept the truth?  The Iranians are not giving up their nuclear program. 

Seeking to step up the pressure, the United States and the 27-nation EU have threatened more sanctions if the Islamic Republic does not stop enriching uranium, which has both civilian and military uses.

Solana has said he hopes the incentives package will start a new process for resolving the dispute but that he expects no "miracles" during his brief visit to Tehran.

That's the kind of tough talk that will surely get the mullahs' attention.

On a farewell tour of Europe this week, President George W. Bush said a nuclear-armed Iran would be "incredibly dangerous for world peace" and that "all options are on the table," alluding to military action as a last resort.

Hmm.  The only issue is whether there's the will to do it.  Frankly, I doubt there is.  This will not go away.

June 14, 2008.      Permalink          

BARACK'S EXCELLENT ADVENTURE

But wait. Don't despair. Just as all seems bleak, a ray of hope juts through the clouds. It's...it's Barack Obama in a silver plane!

We are now informed that the sainted one may make a world tour this summer, the better to buck up his half-page resumé:

WASHINGTON — Barack Obama may depart this summer from his road-warrior tour of election-battleground states to take a trip around the world, one intended to shore up his credentials on foreign policy.

With a foreign trip under discussion in the Obama camp, any itinerary almost certainly would include a stop in Iraq. That would be his first trip to the war zone since early 2006. It would be designed to answer Republican presidential candidate John McCain's criticism that antiwar Obama can't talk credibly about withdrawing U.S. forces since he hasn't been on the ground there since the 2007 troop buildup brought some military success.

While he's at it, Obama may extend his journey to other parts of the globe, especially Western Europe, where his racial mix, youth, optimism and themes of anti-Bush, multilateral diplomacy have generated impassioned interest in his candidacy.

Obama advisers are eager to find a way to harness his popularity overseas to boost his appeal to undecided voters back home, and to show that the 46-year-old freshman senator from Illinois can compete with McCain on foreign policy. While the Arizona senator is a veteran of war and Washington — and 25 years Obama's senior — his support for the Iraq war puts him on the losing side of public opinion.

Bit of editorializing there.  The war is unpopular, but poll after poll shows the American people rejecting a hasty, negligent withdrawal. 

So, is this world tour a serious idea?  It sounds like something dreamed up by anthropologists at a weekend convention.  I mean, get this quote from Susan Rice, Obama's chief foreign-policy adviser:

Rice, who was an assistant secretary of state to President Clinton, said that Obama's international appeal stemmed from the fact that he "represents to the rest of the world the best of the American dream at a time when they have become disillusioned and disappointed with America. He's a new generation of leadership that's globally oriented and aware. By virtue of his family background and having lived abroad in his youth, he has a unique appreciation of different cultures, different societies, and represents an American leadership that's committed to more cooperative solutions."

Oh, dear gawd.  Did she actually say that?  Did the reporter who wrote this story take it seriously?  Apparently, she did. 

Look, it could work.  A fawning press corps, videotape of Obama being kissed by the crowds, the sight of foreign politicians dropping to their knees (while privately laughing.)  Some voters could be swayed. 

But there's a downside.  There could be a backlash at home.  McCain would point out the strangeness of such a trip, only taken in an election year.  The trip would emphasize that Obama hasn't been in Iraq in far too long.  It has the appearance of a stunt, more appropriate for a movie star than a presidential candidate.  And Americans may resent being pressured by foreign mobs. 

By the way, what happens if the president of Iran asks to meet Obama "in the spirit of peace"?  Obama could always send Hillary.

June 14, 2008.      Permalink